Round Sixteen Super Rugby


7th-9th July

Reds v Brumbies

The Australian teams come back to the Super Rugby this week and both these teams really don't have anything to play for. The Reds season is well and truly over and the Brumbies have already sewn up their spot in the playoffs, they can still get above the Stormers but to me that is unlikely.

The Brumbies have won the last 5 games against the Reds with those last 5 games averaging a staggering 25 point win to the Brumbies. They really have the wood over them and have named a strong line up to take on the boys from Brisbane.

The Brumbies have scored more than 40 points against the Reds on 3 out of the last 4 games against them. The Reds have been held to 10 points or less in 3 of those 4 games too.

There has been a bit of rain around in Brisbane today so it may be a low scoring game with a soggy field, having said that the rain should clear by kick off. The average points in the last 5 games between these two teams have been 48.5 points per game.

Not a huge fan on anything for this game.


otp odds

Force v Rebels

I think this might be a good game. Both teams playing for their futures it would seem whether it being culled or contracts. Nothing to play for, for both sides, so we should see some attacking rugby.

The Rebels have the upper hand against the Force of recent winning 4 of the last 5 matches played. The last 5 games have been decided by 6 points or less though so very even contests. Both sides have named near fully strength teams.

The Rebels have not won an away game all season while the Force have lost 4 home games, albeit to top teams in the competition.

The weather for this game looks similar to the earlier match, early showers but should be clear by kick off. These sides have averaged 39 points per game in the last 5 matches against each other. I suspect it will go over that with nothing to play for. The total points is set at 49.5 for this game, no value there.


otp odds

Waratahs v Jaguares

The Jaguares suffered a loss last week to the Southern Kings who have been rather impressive in the 2nd half of this year. After winning 4 of their first 5 games, the Jaguares have now won only 1 game in 8 games; the sole win being against the Sunwolves.

The Waratahs have had a very ordinary year. I thought they had the team to win the Australian conference this year but they have just been so inconsistent.
These two teams have never played before so there is no history to go off. The Jaguares have played 3 other Australian teams this year, beating the Reds at home and losing to the Brumbies and Force at home.

The Waratahs have only won 2 of their 6 home games this season and have conceded 34 points per game this season.

Surely with nothing to play for the Waratahs can pull out an attacking game for this one. The Jaguares are in no form at all and have had a tough year with no rest due to international duty.

I think the Waratahs can win this and win well.

OTP Recommendation

Waratahs 13+3 at 2.00Bookie Image 2-3

otp odds

Bulls v Southern Kings

Two big upsets last week. Both teams were 14 point underdogs and came out winners.

The Bulls have beaten the Kings in all three games played between the sides with an average winning margin of 32 points across the three games.

As mentioned the Kings are in sublime form (for them). They've won 4 of their last 6 games beating a couple of good sides in the process.

The Bulls are 3 from 6 at home this season, losing their last 3 games at home. The Kings have won 3 of 7 away games this season.

Really hard to get a gauge on this game, normally I would have though the Bulls would beat the 11 point handicap but this Kings side has shaken things up of late. Best to stay out.


otp odds

Stormers v Sunwolves

The Stormers suffered a shock loss to the Bulls last week while the Sunwolves were hammered 94-7 by the Lions.

Last weekends loss for the Sunwolves was the 2nd largest winning margin in Super Rugby history. They looked to have really switched off.

The Sunwolves have got back a few of their better players this week. But the Stormers at home is a huge challenge for them. The Stormers have only lost once at home this season and that was against the fancied Lions.

The Sunwolves have conceded on average 46 points per game this season, the worst in the competition, they're also on a current 7 match losing streak which I don't think will be broken this year.

Stormers should get up comfortably here and I think they'll beat the handicap.

OTP Recommendation

Stormers -33.53 at 1.90Bookie Image 3+2.7

otp odds

9th June

Hurricanes v Chiefs

Only the one game this weekend due to the International window. This game may determine who finishes 2nd in the NZ conference, which in my opinion is almost better than finishing in 1st position as finishing 2nd in the NZ conference will mean facing off against the Brumbies in the playoffs.

The Hurricanes had a slow first half but got the job done in the end defeating the Force 34-12 in Perth last weekend. While the Chiefs were fairly dominant against the Waratahs winning 46-31.

The Hurricanes have now won their last 12 home games with their last home loss being to the Chiefs 27-28 in April of last year. They beat the Chiefs in the semi final last year at home 25-9.

In the last 6 games between these two sides they have averaged a fairly low 41 points per game, so we may see a low scoring game, though the way the Hurricanes have played this year I wouldn't want to bet on the under. The Hurricanes have averaged 51 points per game at home this season while only conceding on average 16.5 points at home.

The Chiefs away from home this year have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1, which is a pretty decent record.

The Chiefs are without their best player in Brodie Retallick this week, while the Canes welcome back to the starting line up Nehe Milner Skudder. Both teams have a stack of All Blacks and Maori All Blacks who have recently been selected so we should see a cracking game.

I think the Hurricanes will win this one and win well, they will need to play attacking footy if they want to try and get 1st in the NZ conference by winning with a bonus point.

OTP Recommendation

Hurricanes 13+3 at 2.75Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

    Final +3 3 100%
    Semi Finals -0.77 6.5 -12%
    Quarter Finals +2.94 9 33%
    Week Seventeen -1.2 11 -11%
    Week Sixteen -3.3 9 -37%
    Week Fifteen +0.52 19.5 3%
    Week Fourteen -16 16 -100%
    Week Thirteen +3.81 13.5 28%
    Week Twelve +2.71 17.5 15%
    Week Eleven -2.9 11 -26%
    Week Ten -0.35 14 -3%
    Week Nine -5.52 13 -42%
    Week Eight +6.77 12 56%
    Week Seven +7.8 9 87%
    Week Six +15.46 13 119%
    Week Five +1.61 10 16%
    Week Four -2.24 8 -28%
    Week Three -10 10 -100%
    Week Two +4.9 8 61%
    Week One -4.15 13.5 -31%
    Futures +5.7 10 57%
    Total +8.79 226.5 4%

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