Chiefs v Hurricanes
Pretty much a practise match for both teams as they’ve all but secured 4th and 5th place respectively and they’ll again face each other in next weeks playoffs.
The Chiefs had another win last week this time against the Brumbies, though they dominated most of the game the Brumbies fought on well to almost cause an upset. The Hurricanes safely beat the Blues but the score line probably didn’t reflect the game too much.
The Chiefs have beaten the Hurricanes in 3 of the last 4 games at home. This week they are without two of their better players in Sam Cane and Damian McKenzie. I think they’ll struggle to get the cohesion needed to beat the Hurricanes, but the prices are probably correct so I’m not interested in anything in this game.
Reds v Sunwolves
The Reds upset the Rebels last week at home while the Sunwolves after playing a fairly good first half were dominated in the second half losing to the Waratahs by plenty. They were down to 14 men for half of the game so the score line blew out.
These two teams have played twice with both winning 1 game each. The Sunwolves thrashed the Reds before the June internationals 63-28. The Sunwolves are still yet to win a game away from home and don’t look likely this week with the Reds winning 4 of 7 games at home this year.
Highlanders v Rebels
The Highlanders win here and they’ll secure 6th spot while the Rebels are in an almost must win game to secure their spot in the playoffs.
The Highlanders have struggled of late losing to the Chiefs and Crusaders in consecutive weeks, by the exact same score line 45-22. The Rebels were surprisingly beaten by the Reds last week in Brisbane.
The Highlanders have rested a lot of players in this with stars Aaron Smith and Ben Smith both rested along with a handful of others. The Rebels should get back a couple of players including Will Genia if we passes a fitness test.
I think the Rebels have more to play for than the Highlanders and could cover the line here.
Crusaders v Blues
Top of NZ conference vs bottom of NZ conference. The Crusaders are the team to beat this year and they’ve already secured the minor premiership to qualify first for the playoffs. It is unsure who their opponents will be next week but it could be any of Jaguares, Rebels or Sharks.
The Crusaders have not lost to the Blues since 2014 (7 match win streak) and they’ve now won 11 games on the trot this season. I’m not too keen on anything in this game due to the uncertainty of the Crusaders motivation this week.
Waratahs v Brumbies
Another match with very little to play for. A win here will see the Waratahs qualify 2nd a loss could potentially bump them back to 3rd (if the Lions win). The Brumbies need a mammoth winning margin to have any hope of qualifying, they also need results to go their way.
The away team in this fixture has won 4 of the last 5 matches played. The Brumbies have struggled away from home this year though with only 2 wins under their belt away from Canberra. These two teams tend to have quite low scoring games with the last 5 games being an average of 39.5 points per game.
Again, too uncertain with this one to have any crack.
Lions v Bulls
The Lions had the bye last week while the Bulls beat the Jaguares at home.
The Lions have beaten the Bulls in 4 of the last 5 matches and really have the wood over them. In their last 3 games against the Bulls, the Lions have racked up 156 points. They love scoring tries against these Bulls.
Really liking the Lions in this one, but I do warn that it may be best to place this bet late if the Lions do decide to rest players after the Waratahs game. We’ll have a small stake just in case of that scenario.
Sharks v Jaguares
The Jaguares secured their spot last week despite losing to the Bulls while the Sharks lost to the Stormers to throw a spanner into their playoff calculations. The Sharks have to win this one and hope the Rebels lose in order to secure a playoff spot.
The Sharks have beaten the Jaguares in 4 of the last 5 matches, all 4 of those sharks victories were within 7 points, so they do tend to have close matches. The Sharks have won 5 of 7 matches at home this season with 1 loss and 1 draw.
These two teams tend to hand low scoring matches with the average last 5 games played between the teams being a low 42.5 points per game. This drops even further when the games are played in South Africa with the two games recording an average of 32.5 points per game.
We might have a play on the total closer to the weekend.
No bet for now.
RESULTS STAKES ROI Semi Finals -0.14 2 -7% Quarter Finals -0.28 8 -4% Week Nineteen +4.53 5 91% Week Eighteen -6.15 12 -51% Week Seventeen -3.1 8 -39% Week Sixteen -2.3 8 -29% Week Fifteen +1.1 7.5 15% Week Fourteen -0.38 8 -5% Week Thirteen -3.78 11.5 -33% Week Twelve +1.75 8 22% Week Eleven +9.25 11.5 80% Week Ten +5.5 12.5 44% Week Nine +1.3 11 12% Week Eight +5.84 9 65% Week Seven +5.98 19 31% Week Six +2.64 9 29% Week Five -4.7 9 -52% Week Four -4.4 12 -37% Total +12.66 171 7%